Diario Clarin, 2 May 2011, interview in Spanish

Mariano Bartolomé, author of the book “International Security Post 11-S” and professor of the Regional Postgraduate Course in Disarmament and Nonproliferation organized by the NPSGlobal Foundation, develops for the newspaper Clarín, one of the most read in Argentina, his analysis about the future of Al Qaeda and the “war on terror”. 

He also gives his views on the evolution of global security, the domestic situation in the United States, and the impacts on Argentina 

“It is going to be “the” subject of 2011's international politics”, shoots Mariano Bartolomé, as he receives Clarin.com.

 This renowned international relations expert is the author of the book “International Security Post 11-S”. “For the United States it is a triumph for the persistence and tenacity of its security organisms, armed forces and intelligence communities”, states Bartolomé also a professor of international affairs at the Buenos Aires University, Del Salvador University, Lanus University and of international security and non-state actors at the Regional Postgraduate Course in Disarmament and Nonproliferation organized by NPSGlobal Foundation.

“It is a target they have been chasing since September 11. Even since Clinton (administration) it was a priority target for the defense and security area”, remembers Bartolomé.

- What does this blow imply for Al Qaeda and the United States?
- For the international community it is a news that generates lots of repercussions, I do not know in Al Qaeda’s operational terms, how much it can affect it because it is a very complex matter, very developed and extended. So beyond the symbolic matter, maybe in operational terms the translation would not be as big as the media impact.

- How does the international community receive this news?
- The international community can only rejoice. This, that can be seen as an American achievement, is an event that brings benefits to the whole international system as Al Qaeda and Bin Laden in particular were factors of disturbance not only for the United States but for other countries as well. Al Qaeda has organizations that constitute it in dozens of countries. We are talking about a network, a cluster of organizations that have bombed and killed innocent people and sawed terror in many countries. The international community must take this as a positive fact that brings tranquility and contributes to stability. Could this bring any type of collateral effects? Unquestionably yes. It would not be strange that some of the organizations that comprise Al Qaeda try to perpetuate any kind of attack to reassure their operative status and to dismiss the versions that foresee a decline or deactivation of the organization. The times ahead will be extremely sensitive on security matters.

- What happens with transnational threats? United States took more than 10 years to find only one man, it seems very difficult to deactivate all that network.
- It is a huge job. We have heard so many times of the death or take down of Bin Laden only to find out afterwards that it was a lie that it is hard to believe it now. The job is not done, on the contrary. As there are many organizations that are within this big network that Al Qaeda is, security tasks will continue, and the United States will not low its guard but will have to redouble the efforts to be able to finish this assignment. For this job United States will continue to require the aid of the international community, of its main allies. A transnational threat that transcends frontiers requires above everything cooperation between States. No country, not even the United States, can defeat Al Qaeda on its own.

- Who will be the new leader of the network?
- All eyes are pointing to the historic number two of the organization, Ayman Al Zawahiri. As a matter of fact, many say that the ideological and doctrinaire purity of the organization resided more in Al Zawahiri than in Bin Laden himself. Those who think that with this blow, very important one, Al Qaeda is over, are wrong. I am more pessimist and I think that we will still have Al Qaeda for a while.

- Al Qaeda has made several movements recently.
- Up to now the United States’ efforts were concentrated in Afghanistan and Iraq. Tens of Al Qaeda leaders were killed. That is why the network has redeployed to new sanctuaries and influence spheres and continues to operate. The new sanctuaries are Sub-Saharan Africa on the Atlantic basin. In Yemen they are having a great presence and also in some areas of the Magreb. The reduction of its presence in traditional places does not mean a straight disappear of the organization but a geographical reorientation.

- What happens with United States on a domestic level?
- On a domestic level the recent events are of paramount importance in the pre-electoral context. Obama has faced his reelection with strong criticism on its first administration. There were unattained objectives and other attained at a very high cost and United States has not saved itself from the international financial crisis yet. In that context, a triumph from this nature is highly important and will undoubtedly help Barack Obama’s campaign. But we have to keep in mind something to be fair that it is not only merit of the Obama administration on its own. The Bush administration has put all of its efforts in foreign policy to the goal that has just been achieved.

- What impacts does this have for Argentina, if any?
- Our political leadership and our society can only rejoice. We are the only Latin American country that suffered a terrorist attack of Islamic roots, not one, but two. We, more than anybody at this latitude know the damage, the pain that transnational terrorism can cause. With the fall of the main international terrorist leader, Argentina can only applaud this fact and commit itself with the international community to continue to submit our effort in the construction of a safer international order.

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